Utopia Ops Simulator

Compare spells and thief ops that hit the same thing, and work out how many thieves to send. Every number is editable. Defaults are measured from kingdom 4:10's own ops where that was possible, otherwise taken from the wikis (see the notes at the bottom).

Target & you

Target

Off specs away are hit by Night Strike but not by Meteor Showers or Nightmares, which only reach troops at home.

Province growth

Only used by the over-time chart. Births only happen while the province has room.

Relations

Offensive spells and sabotage ops cost 3% mana or stealth without relations or at Unfriendly, 2% at Hostile or War. War switches thief ops to their war caps and per-thief gains, and adds a 25% war bonus to their yield.

You

WPA and TPA are wizards or thieves per acre. The ratios set each op's success rate from curves fitted to 4:10's own ops. Mana regen is not documented anywhere we found: check it in-game. It is only needed to compare a spell with a thief op.

Compare two ops

First op

Compare with (only ops that hit the same thing)

Result, per op on the target as it is now

Over time

Peasants

Troops (home and away)

Thieves to send

Every sabotage op against the target above. Thieves for the cap is the fewest thieves that reach the op's maximum: the target's stock × the cap ÷ (gains per thief × relative size × racial mod × watchtowers). Sending more adds nothing and risks more thieves. Send is that number, or all your available thieves if you have fewer.

Calibrate Meteor Showers from your throne room

Paste the throne-room lines from a province under Meteor Showers (other lines are ignored), and the counts as they are now, after the last meteor tick. Each meteor line is one tick. Anything else that changed the counts skews it: births, training, aid, attacks. An overpopulated province also loses peasants every tick (10% of them, or the overpopulation, whichever is smaller), so put that under Other peasant losses. The example below needs 10%. Without it, the same log reads as 1.25% per tick instead of the true ~0.9%.

Where the numbers come from
  • Measured from kingdom 4:10's ops (intel site export, April 1–19 YR0), matched to SoT history of both kingdoms:
    • Fireball: 5.6% of current peasants per hit (95% range 4.0–7.3%), about ±14% random per hit. Fitted from how damage falls across 21 bursts of casts on one target in one tick (94 hits). The wikis say about 6%.
    • Spell success against the raw WPA ratio, from 109 Fireball casts: 1 → 31%, 1.5 → 52%, 2 → 68%, 3 → 84%, 5 → 94%. The other spells use the same curve; none were cast by 4:10, and those with a higher difficulty will land less often.
    • Thief-op success against the raw TPA ratio: one shared slope, with each op's own offset where it had at least 20 records (Night Strike, Kidnap, the three robs). Other ops use the pooled curve: 1 → 45%, 2 → 63%.
    • Meteor Showers: 1.14% of peasants and 0.42% of troops at home per tick, from 13 ticks of one province's throne room against its SoT history. The two casts lasted at least 10 ticks.
    • The share of a theft you keep matches the wiki: 90% for the robs, 79% for Kidnap (wiki 80%), 50% for horses.
  • The success formula itself is not published. Both wikis say success comes from your modified WPA or TPA against the target's (raw × science × race × buildings × honor × ritual), and give each op a difficulty, but neither gives the curve. The curves here are fitted on raw ratios, because the SoT history holds raw counts.
  • From the wikis (editable on each op): thief-op caps and gains per thief, from the fandom table, which is newer than the official one where they disagree. Steal War Horses uses the official 0.35 horses per thief, which fits the ~300 horses per op seen in 4:10's data. Night Strike's out-of-war rates for specialists are not published; the war ones are used. Spell rune multipliers and effects: Fireball 1.5, Meteor Showers 3.5, Nightmares 2.2 (about 1.5% of troops at home back into training for 8 ticks), Tornadoes 2.0, Lightning Strike 1.55 (“up to 65% of runes”), Fool's Gold 1.5 (“up to 25% of gold”), Vermin 1.275 (50% of food), Land Lust 4.0 (1–1.25% of acres).
  • Unknown, left blank: Tornadoes' and Arson's damage, Lightning Strike's and Fool's Gold's typical hit, and how many thieves an op loses. Fill them in from your own throne room and the comparison picks them up.
  • Costs: runes per cast = ⌊(0.6 × acres + 200) × multiplier × 1.5⌋. Mana and stealth: 3% per op without relations or at Unfriendly, 2% at Hostile or War. Stealth regenerates 3% per tick.
  • Thievery yield = thieves × gains per thief × (min(their NW ÷ yours, yours ÷ theirs) + 25% at war) × racial mod × (1 − watchtowers), capped at the op's maximum share of the target's stock.
  • Over time: ops land first in a tick, then meteors strike, then peasants are born. Nightmares' troops come back after 8 ticks.